Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Thursday, 2 July 2015

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis

Nexus Phase

Photo of Ciarán LynchCiarán Lynch (Cork South Central, Labour) | Oireachtas source

Okay. Mr. Cowen, I'm going to try and wrap things up for lunch. I just need to get through one question with you, invite the two leads in, and hopefully we'll be out of here by 2.30 for an hour, at least.

If I can just bring the first document up there, it's the business planning review meeting with the MAC and it's of 19 November 2004, okay? And if I can just go to page 3 of it here, it says on here, yes, on the "Housing Construction" heading, it says:

The construction sector is of major significance to the economy, disproportionately so given the historic levels of output of recent years. An estimated 80,000 units in 2004. In 2003, it made up 10% of GNP and 11% of total employment.

I just want to jump on then to reports that were issued in May 2005 and go on to page 2 of that. It'll come up now in a second. And, under the heading there ... it's about the third paragraph down, "Investment, Construction and Sectoral Analysis", Marie Mackle, it says:

As indicated elsewhere the construction sector remains the major issue for this section. It is of major significance to the economy, disproportionately so given the historic levels of output of recent years - an estimated 77,000 units in 2004. The prospective reduction in housing outputhas significant implications for growth, employment, taxes and estimation of the CABB.

Then we'll move on to the next one, which is 2006. So, we have 2004, 2005 and now 2006 and once again it's the Business Planning Review, 3 March 2006, Budget and Economic Division. And we'll go to the second page of the document there and, once again, there is a heading there, "Construction and Sectoral Analysis" and once again it has Ms Mackle's name at the end of it ... or under the heading:

We are very reliant on construction for both employment and economic growth. As a result it is the biggest domestic risk to economic development especially where some external shock negatively interacts with and affects the construction sector.

She then goes down, in the third paragraph, to close off, "Non-residential construction accounts for about half of construction output so it is worth devoting time to." And then closes that paragraph, "We need to develop a better understanding of the shift from manufacturing to services, the driving forces and the possible policy implications."

Mr. Cowen, in the business planning review, as I just mentioned, okay, and going from 2005, they're demonstrating that there were concerns on the reliance of the construction sector and house price inflation. These were expressed as early as 2004. The important analysis of non-residential construction sector was identified, as well, as I've ... as I mentioned, by assistant principal Marie Mackle, who was responsible for construction sector analysis and saw this as a priority in 2005. Did you take part in these business planning review meetings, or were you updated by senior management on assistance principal Mackle's concerns mentioned in these reports?

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