Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Thursday, 2 July 2015

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis

Nexus Phase

Mr. Brian Cowen:

Well, they were address by me in my tenure. As I say, when the ... when it became clear that we had reached, if you like, the point where there was an indications of a ... of a soft landing - this is the question of stagnating high prices and then moving towards a gradual reduction, when that became apparent in the 12 months, August to August, '07-'08, when the reduction was 3.5%, we made a view ... we agreed that what was ... what had happened up to then was not sustainable ... it was not a sustainable level of house building out into the future. It was a spike, if you like, that was trying to meet a demand which needed to be ... in other words, the supply side was finally, hopefully, meeting the demand. That was the analysis. But we budgeted in the 2008 budget, a couple of months later, for only, as I say, 40... 45,000 house completions the following year, as against possibly double that in the ... in the current year, 2000 ... the year 2007. So we did, in fact, we were ... we did take that reduced future resource ... that future revenue source into account in our budgetary framework for 2008 and we produced the budget we did in 2008 on the basis that there would be a reduction. If there was to be ... it's reckoned that that is about the, what would be regarded as the normal demand flow of house completions, given where the demographic is at the moment, maybe 40,000. So we were ... we were budgeting for that; we were accommodating that in our figures and we were moving on for the future on the basis that we would have a 40,000 house completion figure rather than an 85,000 or a 90,000, which was clearly a spike that wasn't sustainable.

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