Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees
Thursday, 25 June 2015
Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis
Nexus Phase
Professor Patrick Honohan:
Yes. Well, I think on solvency, the ... what I said earlier to Deputy Doherty about the loan-by-loan analysis and the capacity to watch those loans now from quarter to quarter and to see the evolution of the defaults and the corrections. And that's a huge improvement, that's a quantum leap and it is not just a one-off that we did for the time of the troika, we made sure that we had the capacity to do it continuously.
That's really big. Liquidity forecasting, I think, was already ... had been put in place fairly well by the time I arrived so I don't think we found the need to go any further than that. I'd say, though, and I know, maybe you don't want a long answer, but still I would caution that, although we're in a different world and it's a quantum leap, we still have the residential mortgages and still the SME loans, they are very long-tailed, we still don't know for sure what's going to be recovered from. I wouldn't like to say we've got it down to the last decimal point. There's still quite a lot of uncertainty about particularly the huge number of mortgage arrears and just how much will be paid in the end.
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