Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Wednesday, 24 June 2015

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis

Nexus Phase

Mr. Kevin Cardiff:

Clearly, yes, but maybe in a slightly different way to the way people have suggested. It clearly did, because the structure of the guarantee ... the structure of any guarantee puts the sovereign credit behind the bank credit. And the combination of circumstances in ... from about May of 2010 onwards, meant that that was a difficult situation to be in. If you remember, in April, or thereabouts, 2010, there was actually an optimistic moment or two. The Central Bank had announced its stress test results. The Government had announced what it would do, in terms of capital, about those stress test results. I think the Bank of Ireland even got in a modicum of private sector equity, which implied that, for that month, the private sector was convinced that things were changing in Ireland. And then the sovereign crisis happened - April, May, a little bit of it in March, even, but accelerating a lot into April, May, June; the Greek crisis. And at that point bond investors became really, really risk averse, both in relation to banks and in relation to sovereigns. So the Irish guarantee became worth less, if you like. So, by the time we got into September 2010, at the time when ... well, even June, July, August, September 2010, at a time when really the banks ought to have been renewing their long-term loans to deal with the end-September cliff, it simply wasn't possible for them to get into the market because they were relying on the sovereign credit and the sovereign credit was suddenly less good, so in that sense, the combination of the two was difficult but, you know, it wasn't so much the structure of the guarantee as that the end of the guarantee happened to coincide with this huge risk averseness arising from the Greek crisis and then spreading to others later.

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