Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Wednesday, 24 June 2015

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis

Nexus Phase

Mr. John McCarthy:

No, no because ... Senator, the ESRI who use the so-called Hermes model, it's a very large-scale structural model of the Irish economy, had published a piece of analytical work either just before ours or just afterwards ... we were doing it independently we didn't even know that they were doing it. And what they did was, they went from, I think, it was 90 down to 50, and concluded that the impact on GDP would be 3%, similar on employment and other variables. Ours was, each 10,000 shaves between a half and one percentage point off the growth rate - so let's call it the mid-point of that, 0.75%. So you multiply that by four because it went from 90 down to 50 and you're getting very similar results to what the Hermes model was punching out. So there was a kind of ... we were coming at it from two different ways, so to speak, but we were coming up with the same results. So I think they are plausible results.

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