Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Wednesday, 24 June 2015

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis

Nexus Phase

Mr. John McCarthy:

Yes, if you look at the paper that a number of your colleagues have referred to, we looked at a situation which each 10,000 fall in the level of housing, and the impact on that on GDP, the impact on employment and the impact on the public finances. So on the public finances, it is roughly a half percentage point onto the deficit for each 10,000. So in other words, if housing out by the time went from 80,000 units down to 70,000, the deficit would have been half a percentage point higher because of lower tax revenue and because of higher unemployment payments ... social welfare payments, because unemployment would have gone up.

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