Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees
Wednesday, 24 June 2015
Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis
Nexus Phase
Mr. William Beausang:
Well, I mean, I think if you if you look at the international research, Deputy, it's very difficult, I mean, notwithstanding the scale of the boom that occurred in Ireland, to actually identify leading indicators of financial distress. And, indeed, when people try to do this work and try to identify a series of indicators that works, or certainly seems to have some predictive value, what they're kind of identifying ... obviously high domestic credit growth and rapid growth in property prices is there, but they're also saying, "Oh, low economic activity or low bank profitability are issues as well." So, I mean, it's not ... obviously, with speaking with the chief economist earlier today and I wasn't ... I didn't see his evidence but I mean it's ... I don't think economists really have much of a track record in successfully, or officials, in successfully predicting or forecasting recessions or economic collapses-----
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