Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Thursday, 18 June 2015

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis

Nexus Phase

Mr. Derek Moran:

All right, I'll try and make it as practical as possible. From December '04 onwards, and that would be in the projections we produced for the '05 budget, we started to build in projections for a fall in housing output. And the economics and the projections going forward and the tax revenues around that would have ... would have been ... so, for example, we would have set out in ... for the '05 budget, assuming that 80,000 output. It didn't quite come in at that at the end of the year, because we were doing this before the end of the year. And that would fall to 76,000 in '05 and fall to about 62,000 by '07, so that's about a 22% phase drop. And that's the point at which we started building that through the ... so we were modelling and feeding that ... that through the projections, and that rolled on in the couple of years after that, that I would have still been there. Invariably what happened was that the output ended up being higher in the year that you first slowed it down. Then you need to go back up and calibrate, and come back down again. And, it is ... so ... so, we were doing that.

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