Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Thursday, 18 June 2015

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis

Nexus Phase

Mr. Kevin Cardiff:

It doesn't matter what it is. Here's the answer, okay? Actually when the capital was put in, it was put in ... yes, the first tranche was put in because yes, PwC had gone in and so forth and that, and yes there were some, they had a picture of the loan book. Actually the first tranche of capital was mostly because the ... it was clear that whatever was the PwC evidence or whatever was the Financial Regulator's view or the bank's own view, that the markets were no longer happy with a 4% capital ratio for any bank either in Ireland or in the UK or anywhere else. All of the recapitalisations that had been happening up to that point around Europe were being done to a standard of an 8% core tier 1 ratio and our banks were somewhere in and around, well the minimum was 4%. So even if there had been zero problem with the loan book, they would have needed to raise capital in those months and that's what that first tranche of capital was about. The loan losses that PwC was talking about were on stress cases and all the rest. They were speculative. As it turns out, they did not speculate nearly as far as things went but that was the future. So, so notwithstanding your suggestion that this capital made it clear that there was a hole that hadn't been known on the night, actually, no, the hole became a bit clearer a bit later. And the situation was changing very quickly. Remember now, property values in retrospect when you look at the figures, they have started to fall off but the biggest, you know, the first, they started to fall off and then there was a bit of a more, more swift fall-off. That was in the third quarter of 2008. Data that wasn't available and couldn't have been available at the end of the third quarter 2008.

So even a perfectly reasonable bank, bank accountant would not have been able to say, even on a revaluation at that point, that actually we have this big problem yet. But that property value thing kept going and it went well beyond stress tests and it went well beyond stress tests for a few ... because of a few different confluences of events. First of all, we had a bubble here in Ireland. Secondly, the kind of international ... and very important is the international situation we had was extraordinary. There was not just a huge fall-off in property values in Ireland. There was a substantial fall-off in property values in other places, including the ones that ... that the places that the Irish banks had used to supposedly diversify their book. And there was an absolute liquidity freeze and in a liquidity freeze, there's no money to buy anything and if there's no money to buy anything the values are forced down even further and it, it feeds off itself. So, none of that was known and could only be guessed at, in truth, as of even December 2008.

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