Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Wednesday, 17 June 2015

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis

Nexus Phase

Photo of Michael D'ArcyMichael D'Arcy (Fine Gael) | Oireachtas source

Yes. And it's also available to yourself, cc'd to yourself. And the question was in relation to the impact of a full guarantee, and this is dated 26 September 2008. So this is three days before the actual night of the guarantee. And Brendan McDonagh says:

This is very difficult to answer as the potential real exposure to the Exchequer of writeoffs is not yet independently qualified.

The rating agencies will be taken aback at the scale of the state involvement in any [I'm not quite sure what it is, I assume it's clean-up] operation and the speed of it occurring. Clearly the length of the workout will be an important factor in their assessment of Ireland's credit rating also. We expect to be put immediately on negative watch and probably soon after be downgraded, how many notches from AAA we just don't know.

Combining [to] takeon of banks Balance sheets of Anglo and Inbs of 110bn and guaranteeing the others of over 420 bn with a deteriorating budget deficit will lead at least in our estimation, an increase in the cost of funding of perhaps ... 1 percent in funding costs.

I just want to leave it there, Mr. Doyle, please. It would suggest, or would it suggest, that the bank guarantee was well considered days before the night of the bank guarantee itself within the Department, within the NTMA, that this was one of very few options that were available to yourselves? Is that a fair comment?

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