Professor John McHale:

On GrExit, it is hard to know how big the shock of a Greek exit would be. Our best guess is that, at least in the short term, we are reasonably well insulated. Even though we do not have that much direct exposure to Greece, we are exposed to countries that are exposed to Greece and so we could get caught up in the turmoil that would follow. The bigger issue is probably further down the road. If things went reasonably well with the Greek exit, this would change the nature of eurozone membership in that as countries get into trouble there would always be doubt about whether they will be able to remain in the euro. This could lead to disruptive speculation down the line. It is something we hope will be avoided. On the other hand, too great a concession to Greece could also have negative affects for Ireland. One of the reasons we have been able to pull out of the crisis is the strengthening of lender of last resort supports within the eurozone. Those lender of last resort supports are based on the idea, essentially, of conditional loans. If those loans are turned into grants, essentially writing off the debts for Greece, or if the conditions are substantially weakened, the concern is that the stronger countries would not be willing to give support in the future. The feeling is that it would not be credible that these would be conditional loans, because ultimately they would not be paid. This could weaken the lender of last resort supports that have been so important in terms of pulling out of the crisis. There are risks to Ireland even if there is no Greek exit, because substantial concessions are made to it. On balance, the hope would be that the two sides can come to an agreement, that Greece remains in the eurozone, and, very importantly, that Greece gets back onto a growth path and puts its crisis behind it. There certainly are risks involved. My colleague Dr. Conefrey will respond to the question about the sale of bank shares.