Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Thursday, 11 June 2015

Joint Oireachtas Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform

Fiscal Assessment Report: Irish Fiscal Advisory Council

2:00 pm

Professor John McHale:

Yes, indeed, it has been a very successful adjustment effort. The creditworthiness of the State was one of the things we were concerned about most at our earliest meetings. When we came into existence in the middle of 2011, Irish bond yields were 14%. There was an implied probability that the Irish State was going to default of between 85% and 90% at the time. It was in that context that we felt the adjustment may need to be reinforced to make sure that we did get through it. Ultimately the adjustment has been successful. It is important to remember that the mistakes that really led to the disaster that we went through were made in good times. What we want to ensure is that we put an institutional framework in place that prevents us from ever doing that again. It is hardest politically, and I understand that the demands on members will be greatest, when it seems that times are improving and people want to see investments that may have been postponed in the past, to take place.

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