Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Wednesday, 10 June 2015

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis

Nexus Phase

Mr. Tom O'Connell:

Well, that's what came out in the event. I've forgotten what I've said myself. But I probably ... the gist of what is there was probably originally written down by me, but ... no, I can only see ... well ... I mean, a central bank can't in any case, as I've said earlier, they can't ... you can't talk about a crash happening, because you'll have it in the morning. So, it was that comment I would suggest, as I say, probably reflected an extrapolation of what was happening since the previous February and the hope that that would continue. I mean, it was clear that with one in seven in the workforce working in the construction sector, that had to fall to one in 14, which was the average in Europe.

So there had to be some adjustment, and I can recollect some outside commentators, the OECD and so on, saying that, you know, you'd have to move a large part of the construction workforce into the other sectors of the economy or else you'd have big difficulties. So it was ... yes, that was probably an optimistic assessment of what the fallout would be, and, I mean, I wouldn't deny it that the timing of the Lehman's thing precipitated a big adjustment, but that is just what was going to come anyway.

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