Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Thursday, 21 May 2015

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis

Nexus Phase

Mr. John Hurley:

I think the critical time period is the crossover between 2005 and 2006. I mean, in 2005, going up to 2005, we took the action I mentioned in relation to taxation. We saw the growth in interest rates and I would have known that there was an interest rate cycle coming, and we did our best by going out publicly to speak about this. We spoke about it on quite a number of occasions and said interest rates are going to double. It wasn't just ... I had to be very careful as a member of the governing council, but the economic staff went out and did this. So we had this understanding of the incentives for property being taken away, interest rates increasing, exchange rates against the dollar and against sterling increasing and also, at the same time, a very very substantial increase in oil prices. Oil prices went up to $70 at its peak in 2005 and I think it was a 70% increase in 12 months, and a 120% increase going back. So they were the issues that were driving the mentality at the time.

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