Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Thursday, 14 May 2015

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis

Nexus Phase

Mr. Paul Dobey:

----- in ... I'll try. So, in 2004, we would have been talking about strong credit in the economy. We would have been talking about economic conditions and competitive pressures that could exacerbate profitability caused by increased competition and falling margins.

In 2005, we talked about continued credit growth and demand in AIB's markets, particularly in Ireland. We talked about a risk that credits might deteriorate post-approval and policies are not reviewed to reflect the changes in economic environment which could adversely affect credit quality. Also in 2005, we highlighted the level of exposure to different economies and sectors.

In 2006, we highlighted significant and continued growth in the new business volumes and increased credit concentrations in the property sector. At that time, there was increasing ECB interest rates and we were concerned about its impact on the Irish economy; that didn't end up being a big issue. We talked about the competitive environment and we made a comment on the aggressive new entrants to the local market with an established infrastructure. We talked about competition to secure long-term capital funding and we talked about the integrity of management information and financial reporting which was dependent on the effectiveness of internal control systems and the tension between that and the drive to maintain EPS momentum and control costs.

In 2007, things were getting a little more difficult. We talked about the provisioning assumptions will require continuous monitoring and appropriate revision as credit grading policies and procedures develop. The favourable credit environment in AIB's markets is reflected in the current provisioning levels. However, as interest rate rises take effect and additional information becomes available, the provisioning may need to be updated to take account of the impact of any deterioration in the credit environment. That was in late 2006, in the context of our 2007 audit. We talked about underwriting in the current environment and breaches of underwriting limits. We talked about the deterioration of credits post-underwriting approval, including the impact of current market turmoil. We talked about credit rating and liquidity positions to support growth aspirations, the significance of the Irish economy to the group and its impact on generating sustainable growth, and we talked about the natural tension between maintaining the integrity of management information versus the ongoing drive to maintain EPS momentum.

And I can continue, if you wish.

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