Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Thursday, 14 May 2015

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis

Nexus Phase

Mr. Paul Dobey:

Yes, I can. As I mentioned in my opening statement, when AIB announced to the market in early 2009 that they expected through ... they expected to take additional provisions in 2009 and '10. And those provisions ... and they were some €6.2 billion I believe ... those provisions were based on this investor presentation from AIB that's ... that contained this information. It's still on the AIB website. But it assumed certain declines in values. So, for example, it assumed, on a base case ... a base case declining values of ... for residential property between 20% and 40% in a base case and 50% on a stress case for zoned land.

A base case with a decline of values of 25% to 50% and a stress case of 70%. So ... and ... so broadly, declines on a stress scenario were between 50% and 70%. So, in that light, there would've been equity in a number of the transactions that were transferred to NAMA so the 60% ... the 56% discount isn't a particular surprise in the context of the numbers that AIB issued to the market in 2009. They wouldn't have planned to ... AIB would've planned at the time to hold these loans to the cycle. What happened, with the benefit of hindsight, is these loans were transferred to NAMA at the bottom of the cycle.

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