Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Thursday, 7 May 2015

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis

Nexus Phase

Mr. John Beggs:

----- and, you know, the information was shared with others. The idea that a soft landing, if you defined it as something that was mild and gradual, it never happened. When we are talking about soft landings, we were talking about it in relation to the housing market, I'm really referring there to a soft landing on prices. When you are at 93,000 units in 2006, it's very unlikely that we are going to have a soft landing, unless we have such a gradual deceleration in the rate of house building over four or five years, the likelihood was, I think it was referred to by other witnesses here today, that the output drop from 93,000 units to something more sustainable, which in our view was somewhere around 50,000, if it happened in one, two years, was going to have a big impact on the economy. So the soft landing really referred only to house prices, that house prices could stop rising, so I would agree with that and that was never ... our definition of soft landing was never quite as soft as generally supposed. In fact, in our report, we make the point that we did not rule out prices falling over several months and at the higher end of the market, where you couldn't justify what people were paying for houses at the top end, that we weren't ruling out significant price declines there, but our concept was, that for the average house price, that that would not decline.

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