Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Thursday, 7 May 2015

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis

Nexus Phase

Dr. Dan McLaughlin:

I would have taken on board a little bit more, in early '08, the funding stresses that were beginning to appear. I didn't think, obviously, it would lead to the essential collapse of the credit markets for about nine months. In terms of the medium-term forecast, the bank used the ESRI forecast, so my forecasts were just for a year or 18 months. I didn't envisage that the global credit markets would collapse the way they did. I regret now, obviously, that my forecast didn't reflect ... I think, if you look at some of the stuff I wrote, I was flagging some downside risk but I didn't think it would be as bad as it was.

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