Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Thursday, 7 May 2015

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis

Nexus Phase

Dr. Dan McLaughlin:

-----in time ... in time people portrayed that to be the ... not to be the case ... and that's complete nonsense. The facts are there. Obviously, I was wrong. I have no problem in admitting that, clearly, in retrospect, the economy did fall apart but not until the final three months of 2008. That's a fact. GDP fell 0.3% in Q1, 0.5% in Q2, it went up 1.2% in Q3. If you look back now at the data, you won't find those numbers because it's all been revised but at the time, which is the point I was making in my ... in my presentation ... we've got to be careful to be aware of what was said at the exact time. And the economy contracted 7.1% in the final three months of 2008 ... 7.1%. That's never happened in the history of the world. And it happened in the final months of 2008. That's why everybody got it wrong. You look at the OECD or the IMF or the ESRI's medium-term forecast in the summer of 2008, what were they saying? They weren't saying anything different. We all got it wrong. I got it wrong, absolutely. Your point about the UCD economist, it was a view at the time and-----

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