Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees
Thursday, 26 March 2015
Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis
Context Phase
Mr. Gerry O'Regan:
I am unaware of that. If Morgan Kelly had approached me with what I would describe not as a dissenting view but as an alternative view on our economic scenario, I would most certainly have given him a run. What I am saying is so as to dispel any suspicion or inclination that the Irish Independenthad a conflict with embracing an - I am uneasy about using the word "dissenting" - alternative, wider view of our possible economic scenario at the time. I have an extract from the newspaper edition of 4 July 2007 when Brendan Keenan was responding to the statements made by Morgan Kelly. He wrote in the context of an ESRI survey:
Actually, there is a bigger danger; that the property market - rather than having a soft landing or a bumpy landing - crashes and burns. This was the scenario outlined in the ESRI quarterly bulletin by UCD economist Morgan Kelly.Although it was contained in the bulletin, it was not part of the ESRI forecast. That predicts a soft landing, with house building falling 10pc over the 18 months, and house prices stabilising after a 3pc fall this year. Prof Kelly takes a different view. Based on property booms and busts in different countries over the past 40 years, an Irish crash could knock up to 60pc off the real (after inflation) price of houses over the next 10 years, he says. The first thing to be said about Prof Kelly's scenario is that it could happen.
In other words, it could lead to a massive property crash. Brendan Keenan, as economics editor of the Irish Independent, continued, "Anyone who says it is impossible is whistling past the graveyard, or a downright fibber." I use that as a case in point that the paper was more than willing to embrace contrarian views.
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