Dr. John Holmes:

There were some questions about the timing of effects. Our model works only on a yearly basis. We estimate that when prices go up, we would see a change in consumption within a year. That is what the evidence internationally suggests. When prices change, one sees a quite short-run effect. I suspect it is not immediate, but I would anticipate that within weeks one would begin to see quite big changes in consumption because, ultimately, consumers make purchasing decisions based on the prices they see. There are some slightly more lagged cultural changes that happen as well as a result of a price.

The health effects are not immediate. That is because some of those who are drinking heavily today will not die from their drinking until ten or 20 years in the future. It takes time to develop liver cirrhosis and alcohol-related cancers. Similarly, there are also people alive today who, even if they stopped drinking today, will die of liver cirrhosis. They have already contracted it. It is not curable. They might die later if they stop drinking, but they will die of it. There is what we call a time lag and, after 20 years, we assume we will see the full health effects where all those effects are played out and we see the full impact. One will see quite a big chunk of the health effects immediately and the report provides some evidence on what we estimate one would see following the first year, but one would see the full effects emerge over the next 20 years.

Whether we would see in Ireland the 4.4% reduction in consumption that has been reported on average in the international literature is quite difficult to answer because it is an average across many countries at different times.