Sir William Cash:

Very simply, the model I would go for would not be the EEA, with which there are serious problems in relation to free movement. That raises the question of immigration also. The Swiss model, which is EFTA plus, would be the direction in which I would go, with us regaining our place in the WTO. In other words, we would re-establish relationships on that footing. At the same time, I recognise the question of the North-South Irish dimension. All I can say, as I said at the beginning, is that we have very strong personal relations and, I think, political relations which have been getting better and better in relation to both North and South. The improvements, with some difficulties, which are embedded as a result of the Good Friday Agreement and other developments and the goodwill that has been generated are such that we would overcome any issues.

The Senator referred to a backlash, but I do not see one. While there are risks on the economic front and we trade with the European Union on a very substantial footing, it is only approximately 40% of our trade. I will not bore the committee with all the economic arguments, but I assure the members that very strong arguments have been put forward by distinguished economists to demonstrate why we would not be disadvantaged economically and that the myth that 3 million jobs are at risk is a nonsense. Nevertheless, that is still put forward as an accusation by some of the organisations that disagree with the kind of analysis I have on the subject from, for example, Roger Bootle. We have some very powerful economists on our side of the equation. When the person from the Institute of Fiscal Studies was quoted to the effect that 3 million jobs were at risk, he said immediately that it was Goebbels-like propaganda which he had never issued. Nevertheless, it is still part of common parlance.

Our small and medium size businesses are heavily over-regulated. Many people want a new relationship. Irrespective of whether they want specifically to get out, they want a new and fundamental change in the relationship. All of these things indicate that the good common sense of the British people is coming through. They are being realistic and there is a real opportunity for our relationship with other countries in Europe to continue while extending our relationship with the rest of the world. I do not see it as a backlash, to put it as simply as that. We have a very good opportunity to act here.

With regard to the role of the City of London, we have multinationals, Goldman Sachs and other big companies making statements regularly. Does anybody really think that the British people as a whole will be influenced by international bankers when they come to a decision like this? I do not think so.