Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Wednesday, 4 March 2015

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis

Context Phase

Professor Alan Ahearne:

I would only be speculating. I do not know. It is difficult to really know whether the bank was insolvent. First, one does not have the data. One does not know exactly what is going to happen over the next couple of years and one does not have the information on when the economy went into such a deep recession. One would really have to know the bank's books. One could say €100 million was lent to a certain developer against collateral, but is it real collateral or is it unrealised capital gained from some other property project that has been used as collateral? One would have to know that and know the loan-to-value ratios. One would have to know whether the developer has a different income stream on which to draw or dividends from some shares he or she has bought in order to make good on the loan. The amount of detail one would have to know to make that assessment is huge.

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