Mr. Steve Aiken:

I will deal with the issues in the order in which they arose. Senator Reilly raised the issue of beef supplies and Brexit. When I was in the Chamber one of the things we looked at quite closely was what we called the circularity of trade. The reality is that the UK, if it went alone could not source enough beef in the UK and would always look to Ireland. For many of the larger supermarket chains and the fast food companies, British and Irish beef are synonymous with each other. That would continue. If we look at the large numbers of companies that are involved in that space, I cannot see that changing. That would be quite significant.

The one thing that does bother me, as Senator Reilly mentioned, is the issue of the North-South economic relationship and what is likely to happen if there was a Brexit or any sort of change. I am on the board of the Irish-British Association and one of the things we have been trying to do in the past couple of years is to raise this debate because there does not seem to be any critical thinking at the possible implications on a North-South relationship if we move toward Brexit. Last October-November we hosted a conference in Queen's University Belfast and Mr. Dáithí O'Ceallaigh and others in this room attended. Quite a few academics were involved in the conversation, but significantly, of the political parties only UKIP turned up, which made it quite an interesting debate. The reality is that this issue needs serious consideration.

This leads me on to the answer to Deputy Byrne's question on what should Ireland be doing. Ireland is in an unique position with the United Kingdom, because it is trusted as a trusted agent. The United Kingdom views Ireland as a great friend to the United Kingdom, that thinks the same way on many issues. In fact our views and opinions have a considerable degree of weight. We might not think they do, but they do. One of the things we should be doing is helping this advocation process of informing the United Kingdom about the importance of remaining within the EU and talking to our European compatriots about the importance of keeping the UK in the tent.

That leads to a question about what we should be seeking to ask as well. What would the UK be like outside the EU? In the global context it would be much diminished. It would have less influence on the world. It would be still a significant economic power and it would be a significant power, whatever it wants to call itself, but it would be diminished. I sat on several of the EU competency panels both in London and in various other places and one of the things that came through in the discussions and in the study is that it would not be in the UK's interests to be outside the EU.

That is not the same as saying the debate can be shaped among the British populace, or that it is the same sort of result for which they should be looking. That would be the answer I would arrive at for that one as well.

Mr. O'Ceallaigh has already touched on the implications for Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland. I have had the opportunity to talk to various leaders from the Scottish National Party over a considerable period of time in the past three years. It is quite clear that a major constitutional issue would arise if Scotland voted to stay in and England voted to go. I would say there could be similar sorts of arrangements in Wales and in Northern Ireland. If most of the constituent parts of the UK - by the national composition of the country, rather than by population - wished to remain in the EU but England, with a substantial body of population, particularly in the south east, was potentially looking towards moving out, that would represent a significant crisis point. It would have major implications. A steady hand, a reasoned debate and the voice of friendship from Ireland would be of considerable importance in that context.

I was also asked about the business position and the impact on business if the Brexit were to become a self-fulfilling prophecy. Some businesses actually have a long-range horizon, whereas others do not. Those that have a long-range horizon are already beginning to look at these issues as well. If one listens to the debates within the Confederation of British Industry and the British chambers of commerce, one will be aware that their view is that some form of accommodation will be met. It is an interesting point when we talk about imports and exports. The activities of companies like Airbus and BMW motors as part of the prevailing "just enough, just in time" manufacturing process show how integrated the UK is within the European manufacturing chain. I refer to the large-scale output from certain places as "the Swindon effect" because all of BMW's diesel engines are manufactured in Swindon before being put into vehicles in the US, Germany and Austria. European countries have a great deal of interest in making sure the UK remains part of the process as well.

I was asked whether a European recovery would be of benefit to the pro-EU lobby in the UK. Of course it would. One of the reasons the euroscepticism debate seems to be gathering momentum relates to what is happening around Greece, its wider implications and what is happening in eastern Europe. The UK is looking to show greater leadership in sorting out Europe's problems. If the eurozone were to pull itself out of its current malaise, get the deflation business sorted out and begin to experience real growth again, particularly in key areas, it would be a very positive statement for the UK electorate when it is thinking about whether to remain in the EU.

I will conclude by setting out what I would advocate to encourage the UK to stay in when it votes on EU membership. We have already spoken about the implications of the vote for the free movement of people and of ideas. This is one of the areas we would probably need to look to. The most significant thing we would probably need to do is to ensure the EU is looking at what is possible. We need to make sure it is well signalled to the UK that the EU is willing to move at least in some direction to keep the UK within the EU. Even to mention that the UK would be much better within the EU from the majority of the EU would probably be a very significant push. I thank the committee.