Timmy Dooley (Clare, Fianna Fail) | Oireachtas source

I thank the four speakers for their thought-provoking presentations. It is often difficult to have European matters discussed in this country because much of the time people do not appreciate their relevance or potential impact. It is very clear from all of the presentations that the public has not really zoned in on this topic, which is why this discussion is timely and helpful for our understanding of it.

Mr. O'Ceallaigh mentioned a period of negotiations, perhaps of two years, after any poll that might take place. If this is the realistic timeframe in which these negotiations take place, people will be led into a false sense of security that we will get a deal which resolves the major issues between us and the UK, such as the agrifood sector, trade generally, human rights or the movement of people, and that all will be fine. This might be the case in some areas, but we cannot end up on the other side of an exit of a country whereby that country gets the benefits and all the positives of these agreements. This cannot be the case. We must be careful. The fact we have co-dependence in certain areas should not lull us into a false sense of security that we will reach an amicable agreement. There is often conflict about issues which prevents the type of deals, arrangements or accommodations we want. This is why we have the European Union in the first instance, to try to do this in a balanced way.

My concern is that industry and trade generally will believe there is such a level of co-dependence that an exit will not really matter and we will sort it out. If this is the case, other countries will wonder what is the benefit for them of being restricted or constricted within a European Union and will consider going down the same road. Then we will be in the proverbial manure business. We must sell the argument that if one slate comes off the roof, the entire roof is in jeopardy. Here, and perhaps to a greater extent in Britain, we must try collectively to get the message across that it will not just be a series of bilateral agreements which will get us through.

Mr. O'Ceallaigh spoke about the impact on exports of a 3% or 3.5% reduction. I believe it would be greater. For a while the co-dependence would assist in maintaining the level of activity, but then we would start getting into tariffs and these would have an impact on deals with other countries. We would end up with this spiralling out of control and the consequences would become much greater than anything that might have been anticipated because of the complexity of the various arrangements which exist. We have a job of work to do to create this level of concern in the minds of the people who will be impacted greatest. There is a responsibility, particularly on those involved in active trade between the two countries, to spell out Ireland's concerns to their associates, whether customers or suppliers, on the other end to try to feed into it at the earliest possible opportunity.

The presentations were very solid and did not lend themselves to too many questions. I thank the witnesses for their assistance in our work.