Mr. Fabian Zuleeg:

The problem with regard to influencing the debate is significant. Predominantly this is a domestic UK debate, which is very difficult to influence from outside. A major question for me which has not been answered in the debate in the UK is what does "out" mean. What does it mean to state a country will leave the European Union, because very often I hear that "out" means no political integration but maintaining access to the Single Market.

That underestimates the political negotiations that would have to occur, some of the legal problems and, crucially, the underlying deal. A Single Market is not a pick-and-choose menu from which one can take some competitiveness measures and exclude some social and environmental policy measures. These are all part of the Single Market.

This point leads to freedom of movement. One of the key points that is not debated in the United Kingdom at present is that freedom of movement of people is not simply a right under the treaties, which I believe is worth defending very strongly, but also a crucial element of the four freedoms of the Single Market. Arguing against the free movement of people is ultimately arguing against the Single Market, and not for it.

I am quite sceptical about what could be achieved in any reform package because I do not envisage how meaningful change could be achieved in a relatively short timescale. If there is an election victory by the Conservatives in May and then a reform package agreed by 28 member states, perhaps with elements ratified by 28 member states, as early as 2017-----