Seán Crowe (Dublin South West, Sinn Fein) | Oireachtas source

Some of my questions will complement those of the Chairman. I had intended to ask how much concern there is in Europe. Professor McCarthy appeared before the joint committee earlier in the week and mentioned how the bookies are suggesting it is unlikely they will leave. While we certainly are waking up to the possibility of such an exit, is the position similar across the European capitals? In the worst-case scenario in which Britain decides to leave, what would be a reasonable timeframe for it actually to leave? How long would it then take to negotiate new trading agreements? While these are huge questions, I seek ballpark figures. Mr. Zuleeg mentioned the European Union budget and losing the amount contributed by the British State. How does he reckon this will work out? He suggested the possibility that the shortfall would be made up by other countries and so on. While this certainly would cause major problems right across Europe, the difficulty appears to be that we never really have been in this position previously and, therefore, the question is what to do. While members certainly have a fair idea of the impact it would have on Ireland, what country is next in line in this regard? I would describe a British exit as being disastrous for Ireland because of the Border in respect of the North and so on. One also could talk about the impact, were the referendum in the North to go against, or about Scotland going against and the impact it would have on Britain itself. Where will it go from there?

The British seek reforms and Professor McCarthy spoke about pre-negotiations and post-negotiations. Have those pre-negotiations already started? How strong is the hand they have to play? Mr. Zuleeg spoke of the impression that they have almost disengaged from the process in the context of the lack of compromise and so on. Has this weakened or strengthened their position for these negotiations? The view is that if the Conservatives can deliver on some changes, it would have an impact on the referendum itself. In the context of the referendum, there is talk of what the Labour Party will do. I note the latest poster produced by the Tories has put the Labour Party leader together with Alex Salmond. It suggests that if one thinks the Labour Party leader is bad, this would be twice as bad and so on. The Tories already are hyping it up to secure the support of 5% or 7% of the electorate, which is where the shifts appear to be. As for the debate on austerity, what impact will this have on austerity within Europe from the perspective of the pro-austerity and pro-stimulus camps? What future effect do the witnesses think it will have in this?

I have already mentioned the impact on the Border but it also will have an impact on the all-Ireland economy, including the all-Ireland tourism sector. While it would change the entire dynamic for Ireland, I would be interested to hear what changes will happen. Mr. Zuleeg also mentioned the transatlantic trade and investment partnership, TTIP, as did Professor McCarthy, who envisaged a move away by Britain towards the United States. He indicated that it would not have the same impact, as, for example, GM foods would not raise the same concerns in Britain as they would for the rest of us and possibly in Europe as well. What impact does Mr. Zuleeg think this will have on the TTIP negotiations themselves?