Professor John FitzGerald:

Unlike Cassandra, we would all be conscious of the fact that we are not infallible. In the 2005 medium-term review, if the Deputy had asked me at the time, and I think a journalist asked me, what probability I would have put on a housing price collapse, I would have said a third, but by late 2006 and early 2007, it was at least a half. However, in terms of pressure with regard to the 2005 medium-term review, my feeling is that it did not go down well politically.

We did not have any interaction with politicians or the Department.

There is one instance where I do feel there was upset but it was probably at a high level in the Department of Finance and possibly not with the Minister. It was in our 2006 report for the Department of Finance where we said, "You have got to take money out of the building construction sector, it is dangerous". The high level in the Department of Finance was unhappy with our conclusion.

I presented the results at a seminar, on at least one or two occasions, with the then Minister, Deputy Cowen. He knew we disagreed but as a politician he knew people disagree all the time. I did not feel that he was upset but there was, I know, upset with our conclusion.