Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Thursday, 5 February 2015

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis

Context Phase

Professor William Black:

In terms of the last one, postal savings banks have been very successful throughout large parts of the world, not just in Europe. Japan had them for a very long time. There is a concept in economics of Nero banks, and that fits well into that category.

As to the Deputy's other question, one of the critical things this recipe does is allow us to differentiate between behaviour that is "reckless" or "optimistic" and behaviour which is deliberate. We get deliberate behaviour when we deliberately create adverse selection. We must remember that underwriting looks like a cost centre but it is really the primary profit centre of an honestly-run bank. I have not mentioned this, as a banker sitting on credit committees and such, that you make money by doing good underwriting. When you deliberately do bad underwriting and when you push out the people - this is in the Nyberg report - who object and who try to have good underwriting, that is deliberate behaviour. It allows you to distinguish. I have an entire article in the literature on criminology about how to distinguish between criminal behaviour and not; the Deputy can read that article. That is what allowed us to cut through these defences. We must remember these are the best criminal defence lawyers in the world. They are people in elite positions who could hire the best defence and get those convictions with a 90% conviction rate. It is possible to distinguish which of these things is really happening. There is literature available, and there is an experience.

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