Mr. Fergal Costello:

This is also a CAO issue and an issue of the demand for places. We knew this issue was coming as it is a demographic issue and we will have significant numbers of 18 year olds for the next 15 years.

When we had the dialogue meetings with the institutions last year, they were predicting a growth in student numbers. They suggested the profile we were looking at was a growth in the overall system from approximately 199,000 students in 2012-13 to approximately 216,000. Our estimate is that this would more or less track the demographic growth over that time, although I am not sure it will capture the skills growth. That is a separate issue and we may still face a skills gap. This is a projection and the challenge for the institutions is whether they can take in those increased numbers, continue to give them a high quality student experience and quality outcomes. We are conscious that there is no good in the HEA just pushing more and more students through the system if the quality outcomes collapse. The number going through must be a number that is adequate and that can be supported and brought through properly rather than an increased number every year. This is an issue we will review every year and report back to the Minister on.