Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees
Thursday, 4 December 2014
Joint Oireachtas Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform
Fiscal Assessment Report - November 2014: Irish Fiscal Advisory Council
3:10 pm
Dr. Thomas Conefrey:
On the Deputy's first question concerning the projections for the rest of the year, it is something we have not done. It is company specific information and really difficult to project whether this will happen in Q3 and Q4. We will have the Q3 data next week and be watching closely to see if this activity is still evident. Given that there were buoyant export numbers in the first half of the year, we would have expected to see higher import royalties associated with them. Royalties were up a little but not to the extent we would have expected, given the sharp jump in export figures. It is possible, therefore, that before the end of the year, either in Q3 or Q4, we will see a big increase in import royalties which would unwind the big increase in GDP. It is possible that we will see this activity continuing. We could have even higher growth figures than in the first two quarters of the year. The Deputy's point, however, and the one we make in the publication is that it is true that this activity is likely to have a small domestic impact. If the activity is carried out abroad, there is little or no impact on employment here. We are trying to get the message across that clearly there is underlying momentum in the economy and growth across a number of sources which is becoming more broad-based but not to the extent the headline numbers suggest.
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