Dr. Nader Hashemi:

It is a good question. There is a rivalry for regional dominance in the Middle East between two of the major powers, Iran and Saudi Arabia. Iran has been significantly weakened economically, the Deputy is right, because of its nuclear programme. It has also gained somewhat in political influence after the demise of Saddam Hussein, because the successor Government in Iraq has been a group of Shia political parties that are allied with and sympathetic to Iran. Iran's influence has in many ways expanded into Iraq, where before it had no influence under Saddam Hussein. The economic sanctions have weakened Iran, but it is still able to sell its oil on the international market. It is a fairly rich country by developing-world standards, and is still a long way off from economic collapse and from being a destitute, broken society. It has a lot of cards to play. One reason it has come to the negotiating table on the nuclear question is what Deputy Byrne hinted at, namely, it realises its economic future will not be able to improve unless it resolves this nuclear question and the economic sanctions are lifted. We are still a long way away from any kind of total collapse or a reduction in Iran's regional influence as a result of the current sanctions placed on it.

Saudi Arabia does not want Iran's influence to increase and that is completely understandable. These are two countries that have conflicting interests. One thing the international community could be doing is trying to bring Iran and Saudi Arabia to some sort of common understanding. As long as these two countries are funnelling and fuelling different groups and militias it is going to add to the political conflict in the region.

The new, moderate Government in Iran under President Rouhami has tried to reach out to the Saudis and achieve a dialogue, and I hope this is a step forward. However, there is a long way to go before we can hope Iran and Saudi Arabia have put aside their differences, largely because the conflict between them has been ongoing at various levels since 1979. The Deputy put his finger on something that is very important in the destabilisation of the region, namely, the regional rivalries and proxies that are funded by major powers, of which Saudi Arabia and Iran are two of the biggest. This must be part of any regional de-escalation of the conflict in the region.