Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Thursday, 19 June 2014

Joint Oireachtas Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform

Fiscal Assessment Report 2014: Irish Fiscal Advisory Council

3:30 pm

Professor John McHale:

It is where one sees credit chasing prices that one should be concerned. We previously had a triple bubble, involving a construction bubble, a price bubble and a credit bubble. Usually a supply response brings prices down, but the underlying pressure was so strong that even the supply response had no effect. There were multiple hits against the economy, involving the collapse of an overextended construction sector, massive loss of wealth and the ensuing economic destruction. Given what happened previously, it is the job of bodies such as the Fiscal Advisory Council to monitor developments very closely in order that damage is not inflicted again. However, we should not overreact by identifying bubbles where they do not exist. Our analysis does not indicate that a bubble is emerging, but we have to be watchful and there are signs that should be monitored. We will continue to report to the committee on our analysis of the housing market in our future appearances before it.

On corporate taxation, as we are getting into a more specific area, I will not speak for the council.

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