Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees
Thursday, 19 June 2014
Joint Oireachtas Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform
Fiscal Assessment Report 2014: Irish Fiscal Advisory Council
3:05 pm
Mr. Sebastian Barnes:
This is the first time we have undertaken an endorsement of the medium term. How one conducts short-term forecasting is relatively established. It does not always work, but there is a set approach. Considering the medium term is much more difficult and on our side is a work in progress to a much greater extent. Due to the greater uncertainty, we endorse these as being appropriate forecasts for the medium term while noting our sense that they are relatively optimistic. The question about the assumptions on which one should plan is a different one. The report says it is a reasonable forecast, but if one is prudent, one might have a slightly lower number aiming off that kind of thing.
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