Michael Noonan (Limerick City, Fine Gael) | Oireachtas source

It is a matter for the CSO to come up with the figure. I understand it might do so before the end of this month. It is undertaking two distinct pieces of work. One involves having Ireland's GDP calculation in compliance with the new European rules. In the new European rules, as the Deputy outlined, illegality, the proceeds of crime and various other things can now be brought in for the purposes of GDP. We do not think this will be very significant in Ireland. The Deputy mentioned the UK. Military spending will now be calculated as an investment in rather than as a cost in countries with heavy military budgets so that will be of significant benefit to the GDP calculation of some European countries, particularly the NATO countries. Where Ireland benefits more is not from any of those but from the fact that in future, research and development under the new rules will be treated as an investment rather than a cost to industry. From what I read some weeks ago, I think it can be recalculated back to 1994 but do not hold me to that date. We think that will have a significant positive impact on Ireland's GDP. GDP is the denominator so when one gets a deficit calculation, obviously, the higher GDP is, the lower the deficit is without any further correction. I am not quite sure where it will fall.

The CSO is continually revising its statistics as better data comes in. There is an anomaly in the statistics at present at which it is looking. I do not know which way it will fall. The Deputy saw that the calculation for GDP last year was as if growth was in decline but at the same time, it is not consistent to argue that a declining economy would create 1,200 extra jobs every week. It looks as if the GNP figures are more reflective of what is happening in the real economy than the GDP figures. Again, in its normal routine work, the CSO is looking at that area. I do not know whether that gives us a plus or not and am not in a position to predict. The CSO is very secretive about its figures. I would be confident that the technical adjustment will give us a plus of GDP. It is up to the CSO to announce what the amount is but I think it will be in excess of 1%.