Pat Rabbitte (Dublin South West, Labour) | Oireachtas source

It is a very interesting question which shows how forecasting can be such a difficult business. When people sat down in 2006 to prepare the White Paper of 2007, clearly, nobody foresaw the dramatic step-down in economic activity. Around 2006 we were on a knife-edge in terms of our capacity to meet demand and it was very fragile. The 19% reduction to which the Chairman refers is dramatic. Yes, there have been energy reduction measures and some improvement generally in our consumption patterns and all the rest, but, primarily, it is due to the economic step-down. The Chairman’s question concerns whether this gives us some headroom in planning, to which I believe the honest answer is “Yes.” We are not on the same knife-edge. The possible exception is that we now operate in an all-island energy market and Northern Ireland does not have the same easy security of supply in the immediate years ahead. That is hugely significant in the context of the interconnector project planned between County Meath and County Tyrone.

The Chairman is right about the urgency that might have been evident in 2005-06. It does give us time to plan and is one of the reasons, although only one, I opted for a Green Paper rather than a White Paper. So much has changed and while the Chairman has put his finger on one of the reasons, we must also look at international developments. The revolution in unconventional gas and oil production in the United States is also a hugely significant factor and the European Union is preoccupied with the competitiveness implications of that development for Europe. Gas prices here as compared to those in the United States have been turned on their head dramatically. In the United States one will find people connected with the energy business predicting that in the next ten or 15 years the United States will head for self-sufficiency. This would have enormous implications both for geopolitics and energy policy in the European Union. The short answer to the Chairman's question is that he is right, that this does give us some time. That is why we have a Green Paper and an open invitation to all to contribute during the public consultation phase.