Dr. Adrian Kavanagh:

My intention is to give an overview of the different ideas people have about voting rights for diaspora populations before looking at a what-if scenario in which diaspora voting rights had been extended in respect of the last general election. This is becoming more of an issue with what people refer to as "the diaspora turn" in public policy. In recent decades, there have been growing levels of engagement between governments and diaspora populations. This cuts across a number of different dimensions including economic development, philanthropy and tourism promotion, as we saw recently with The Gathering. There is a growing sense that states are becoming increasingly aware of their diaspora populations and of the policy issues.

The way states relate to diasporas is changing. One way this has happened in more recent decades has been by way of the extension of voting rights to diaspora populations. As we all know, however, external voting rights have not been established by all states. Many academic writers see this process as similar to the extension of voting rights to other groups in the past, including the extension of voting rights to women at the start of the last century, to minority groups and to younger adults. Of course, there are differences. There are a number of arguments for and against the policy. Some of the arguments against it are based on the suggestion that political rights should be linked to the extent of taxation liabilities. Others refer to the danger of extending voting rights to emigrants in terms of extending rights to people who will be making decisions on what happens in the home state and to home populations.

The academic literature contains a number of arguments in favour of the extension of voting rights. One of the more interesting arguments relates to a report by the Hansard Society in the United Kingdom. The United Kingdom extends voting rights to British expatriates and the report considered the problem of increasing the level of voting by expatriates. The basic argument was that by encouraging expatriates to vote, they would act as lobbies on behalf of their home countries. It was suggested to encourage expatriates to take a more active interest in the political and current affairs of Britain and pass this interest to future generations. Another interesting argument was to the effect that expatriates could bring an important international perspective to a national general election contest. In other arguments it is noted that the right to vote in national elections is a constitutional and human right. Leaving aside the taxation issue, diaspora members have suggested that economic remittances represent a significant contribution to the present and future well being of countries. It has also been suggested that economic circumstances were what forced people to emigrate. Other arguments relate to the emotional, cultural and patrimonial bonds that continue to exist between migrants and their native lands.

The academic literature is interesting in suggesting that what really drives decisions on the extension of voting rights is the politics of the home state rather than the extent of advocacy on behalf of different migrant groups. Much of the literature suggests it has to do with the political context or the political make-up of the state at certain times. It discusses opportunity spaces that exist at certain periods when the politics of a state might make it more open to decisions on the extension of voting rights. Often this can be down to perceptions as to the impact of extending the right to vote to diaspora populations on election results.

Ireland is an interesting case but first I note some interesting election findings from other countries. It has been suggested that migrant voters may vote in a more nationalistic way. The evidence suggests that has been the case in some instances, but not in others. There is no cast-iron proof that migrant voters vote in a certain way. I looked at Croatia. The Croat diaspora tends to vote for the more nationalistic HDZ party instead of the other parties in the state. Italy is one of the countries which gives significant voting rights and electoral power to its diaspora. Looking at the last Italian elections, we see that the centre left party, which provides the leadership of the current Government, took many more votes and seats than were given to the Berlusconi coalition. There is no strong evidence that diaspora voters will bring about particular election results.

Another interesting element of extending diaspora voting rights relates to turnout levels.

I looked at three countries. If one looks at the evidence from the UK, estimates suggest that 3 million British people might be living abroad who have the right to vote but that only a couple of thousand registered to vote in the UK. According to the last estimate from December 2011 carried out by the Hansard Society, only 23,366 people registered out of what the society suggested was an estimated three million people.