Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Thursday, 8 May 2014

Public Accounts Committee

2012 Annual Report of the Comptroller and Auditor General and Appropriation Accounts
Vote 7 - Office of the Minister for Finance
Chapter 1 - Exchequer Financial Outturn for 2012
Chapter 2 - Government Debt
Finance Accounts 2012

2:05 pm

Mr. John McCarthy:

On the growth forecast, obviously this was a document that the Government approved. The figures provided are our forecasts. However, the GDP forecasts contained in the document are very similar to those contained in the stability programme published at the end of April. Our projection for GDP growth in 2014 is 2.1%. The change is very modest. However, the stability programme update numbers go all the way out to 2018 and have been endorsed by the Fiscal Advisory Council. The numbers in the document are, therefore, very similar, with differences of 0.1% here and there, and they have been endorsed independently. They are also quite similar over the medium term to the European Commission numbers because it is done on a supply side basis. There is not, therefore, a dramatic difference in terms of the GDP numbers. The ESRI would have a stronger set of medium-term forecasts.

The one area where there is probably an upside is unemployment, figures for which are provided on the second line. The figures we have had subsequent to the medium-term economic strategy have been much more positive than had been assumed. In other words, instead of an unemployment rate of 12.5% for this year, as embedded on the second line, the rate already stands at 11.7%. There is, therefore, probably some upside on that figure and we are probably in line to achieve the employment targets embedded in this as well.

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