Michael Noonan (Limerick City, Fine Gael) | Oireachtas source

I have asked NAMA to do a review, and I have set it certain objectives. I am quite neutral. I am looking for data on which I can make decisions subsequently. For example, I have asked it what would be the consequences of taking the entire residual NAMA book and doing what IBRC did with its book, namely, sell it off in a six-month period at the end of 2015. I want to see how that would pan out. I have also asked it what would be the outcome if it had €17 or €18 billion of a residual book, which it divided into three thirds, timelined and sold off that way. There is a simple equation. Does it sell quick and have very little upside or does it hold out in the hope that property values increase so that there is a bigger return to the Irish taxpayer in 2025? It is not as simple a sum as that, however, because NAMA is supported by NAMA bonds and the NAMA bonds are on the balance sheets of the main banks, and there are many of them on the balance sheet of AIB, which are a big drag on the balance sheet of AIB. If it were to sell off quickly and redeem the bonds, it would have to factor in what that would do to the share value of AIB, and we might get our upside in selling the AIB shares.

I will communicate fully with the Senator. I am not trying to do anything in secret. I have not made up my mind about it. The legislation provides for a review of NAMA this year and that is what we are doing but I have asked it specific questions. It has also approximately 2,500 acres of development land, principally in Dublin, and I have asked it for suggestions on how we would work that and whether it would be possible to use it as a break on the market, but there is probably not enough of it available. The Senator will recall the various Bacon reports that advocated taking the heat out of the property bubble on several occasions from the late 1990s onwards, and none of them worked. Their principal mechanism was using stamp duty but to my mind they only made it worse. We should be looking at a different set of mechanisms this time. We might have a discussion on it some day.