Professor John McHale:

On that point, the Government's projection in the stability programme update in April was for a deficit in 2015 of 2.2% of GDP. Given that this was a central projection, the probability of missing the 3% target was relatively low at one in three. As a result of the imposition of a lesser adjustment in the budget and a worsening in terms of the level of nominal GDP and some other changes, the overall projection in the most recent budget is for a deficit in 2015 of 2.9%. Our figure of a breach probability of one in two is no mystery if one considers that the gross risks are reasonably balanced around the central forecast.

There is a 50-50 chance that the deficit is going to be above it.