Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Thursday, 5 December 2013

Joint Oireachtas Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform

Fiscal Assessment Report November 2013: Discussion with Irish Fiscal Advisory Council

2:55 pm

Professor John McHale:

-----I ask her to turn to page 85, panel f, which shows the adjustments to date. Here we were assuming a €3.1 billion adjustment for this budget because this was based on data in the SPU. She will see the planned adjustment of €2 billion in 2015. She will see also that the numbers turn negative from that point in terms of the overall nominal adjustment that needs to take place in the budget, aside from the horrible fake positive figures that we have been living with in recent years. It is calculated to identify the minimum adjustment, which can turn negative, that is consistent with meeting all the fiscal rules, including the adjustment path rule the Deputy mentioned. If she wants to get a sense of how the other fiscal variables, including the structural budget balance, evolve under these scenarios she can see that in the other panels in the table.

On the next page we show what it would look like if we had to do a 0.75% improvement in the structural balance each year rather than a 0.50% improvement. That is to get a sense of the sensitivity of these projections to the policy target in terms of improving the structural budget balance. There is important good news here-----

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