Dr. Ann McGarry:

I thank the Chairman and the members of the committee for inviting us here today to address them on the implications for Ireland of existing and proposed nuclear plants in the UK. We welcome the opportunity to inform the committee of the results of our assessments and to respond to its questions on particular issues of concern. As members of the committee have already received a detailed paper from us, I propose to take them through a short presentation that is based on a number of Powerpoint slides. I will then be in a position to respond to questions.

The Radiological Protection Institute of Ireland's mission is to ensure people in Ireland are protected from the harmful effects of radiation. We do this in a number of ways. Radiation sources and X-ray equipment have many beneficial uses for society in areas like medicine, industry, education and research. The institute regulates this use to ensure those directly using radiation sources, and the wider public, have an appropriate level of protection. In addition to our laboratory facilities, we operate a network of monitoring stations around the country where we can measure radiation levels in a range of sample types. We use the results of the monitoring and the measurements to assess the consequences of radiation levels for people living in Ireland. The institute plays an important role in Ireland's national plan for responding to nuclear accidents abroad. We also provide a range of services to licensees and businesses. For example, we certify the levels of radioactivity in Irish food products that are being exported outside the EU.

The committee has invited us to present our assessment of the implications for Ireland of the existing and proposed nuclear plants in the UK. The slide I am showing the committee lists the existing plants there. Members will see that there are seven nuclear power plants on the west coast of the UK, facing Ireland. All of these plants are due to be shut down by 2023. I also draw the attention of the committee to the Sellafield site, which was mentioned by the Chairman. The facility at Sellafield is not a nuclear power plant - it is a nuclear fuel production and reprocessing plant. The next slide shows where the proposed new power plants will be located. As the UK needs to replace the energy produced by the older plants that are due to be shut down, it has identified eight sites as being suitable for the construction of new nuclear plants by 2025. As the slide indicates, seven of the proposed sites already have nuclear power plants located on them. Some of those power plants are still operating and some of them have already shut down. The eighth proposed site is adjacent to the Sellafield site at Moorside.

When we think of how Ireland might be affected by the radiation emitted from these plants, either during their day-to-day operations or as a result of an accident, we must consider the two primary ways in which radioactivity may reach Ireland - through the air or through the sea. Radioactivity that enters into the air can expose us directly, or we can inhale the air and so be exposed. If radioactivity gets into the food chain, we can be exposed to it by eating contaminated food. Similarly, if radioactivity discharged into the sea gets into the food chain, people living in Ireland can be exposed to it. The term "radiation pathways" is used to describe the way in which radiation from nuclear plants in the UK has an impact on Ireland.

The Radiological Protection Institute of Ireland assesses the impact of routine discharges from existing nuclear plants in the UK by measuring radioactivity in the environment. Those radioactivity measurements are considered alongside habit data, which can include data on the patterns of eating fish or shellfish from the Irish Sea or walking along beaches that might be contaminated. In that way, we can work out how much exposure people in Ireland have to the radiation emitted from those plants. Subsequently, we can estimate what the implications of the radiation dose they have received might be for their health. We provide information to the public. We produce monitoring reports every year to give people details of the impact of radioactive discharges from nuclear plants in the UK.

The impact of the routine discharges from Sellafield and nuclear plants in the UK makes up a very small part of the Irish population's overall exposure to radiation. The pie chart on the slide I am showing the committee gives a breakdown of the sources of the exposure to radiation of a notional average person living in Ireland. As members can see, radon in our homes makes by far the biggest contribution to our radiation exposure. The red segment of the pie chart shows that radiation from artificial sources, which includes the radiation dose from Sellafield and other nuclear facilities, the radiation that is in the environment as a result of weapons testing in the 1950s and 1960s and the radiation resulting from past accidents such as the Chernobyl incident, accounts for less than 1% of exposure. Therefore, the actual day-to-day impact of routine discharges from Sellafield and nuclear plants is negligible. Sellafield makes by far the largest contribution to the small impact that radiation from nuclear plants is having on the overall level.

The next slide gives details of our assessment of the potential implications for Ireland of the proposed nuclear power plants in the UK. As I have mentioned, eight sites have been deemed to be suitable for the building of new nuclear power plants in that country. We have studied the likely levels of day-to-day discharges into the air and into the sea. We have also examined the implications for Ireland and the people of Ireland of the accidents that could potentially happen at any of those locations. We have assessed five scenarios involving accidents that might release radioactivity into the air and three scenarios involving accidents that might release radioactivity into the Irish Sea.

As the plants have not yet been built, we do not have accurate information about what the actual discharges will be. Based on the information that is available about the types of reactors that may be built at each of the sites, we have developed a generic reactor model to use to estimate releases through day-to-day discharges or as a result of an accident. After we had agreed on an estimate of the amount of radiation that might be released by either route, we studied how weather patterns would affect the transport of radioactivity to Ireland by air or by sea currents. We modelled how that radioactivity would get into the food chain after it had reached Ireland. We estimated what dose of radioactivity might be given to people living in Ireland in such circumstances.

I am afraid the font used on the slide dealing with the accident scenarios we examined is quite small. We assessed five scenarios in which radioactivity is released into the air. I will not go through this slide in detail. Each scenario was based on a different frequency, ranging from one in 50,000 per annum to one in 33 million per annum. While such scenarios are quite rare, they would be quite impactful nonetheless, which is why we looked at them in detail. We divided the impacts into two categories - the health impacts and the other impacts. It is clear from the slide that in four of the five scenarios, the releases would result in no observable health effects in Ireland, even in the case of a severe accident. In the case of the fourth scenario listed on the slide, it is predicted that the release of radioactivity could pose a long-term risk of an increase in cancer rates in Ireland if our national emergency plan for nuclear accidents, which is designed to reduce the impact of an incident of this kind, does not work effectively and certain controls are not put in place.

As we saw in the cases of the incidents at Chernobyl and, more recently, Fukushima, an event of this nature can have a socioeconomic impact in addition to its direct health impact.

For many of the scenarios there would be socioeconomic impacts. In some cases, people would be advised to stay indoors for a period, and that period would be determined by the amount of radioactivity released. It could be from hours to possibly a day or two.

For most of the accident scenarios we considered, some food controls would be necessary. The amount of radioactivity reaching Ireland would not be enough to impact people's health directly, but if the food contaminated was not taken off the shelves and people ate it, then it may have some health impact. Our emergency plan is designed to ensure food controls would be implemented, and that is what we would expect. Changes could be necessary for farming as well. We saw that arise after the Chernobyl accident when there were restrictions, particularly on sheep and milk, for a time directly after the accident. For the accident scenarios we have considered, there could be restrictions as well.

I have referred to the national emergency plan for nuclear accidents. The plan sets out the way in which Ireland would respond in the event of an accident at a plant in the United Kingdom or further afield. The lead agency for the plan is our parent Department, the Department of the Environment, Community and Local Government. The role of the Radiological Protection Institute of Ireland in the plan is, in the first instance, to alert that there has been a nuclear accident. We have bilateral arrangements with our counterparts in the UK and we also participate in the international alerting mechanisms through the European Union and the United Nations body, the International Atomic Energy Agency, based in Vienna.

We also have a role in assessing the consequences of an accident. Obviously, immediately after an accident we would not have any actual measurements of radioactivity, but based on what we know about the plant where the accident has taken place, what we know about the kind of radioactivity that might be released and the amounts, we can model what the impacts on Ireland might be and, as a result, we can advise on what counter-measures might be appropriate or what measures should be taken in such cases to limit the impact on people living in Ireland.

As of now, nuclear power plants are operating at seven sites on the west coast of the UK. There are eight sites proposed for the development of new and replacement power plants. Generally speaking, the wind direction is away from Ireland, and that is important. We already know there is no measurable radiological impact on Ireland from the existing plants for day to day operations. Based on the assessments we have done, we estimate the same would hold true for the proposed plants, that is to say, there would be no measurable radiological impact on Ireland from day-to-day operations. At the moment the reprocessing plant at Sellafield is the main source of artificial radioactivity that reaches Ireland. We can detect radioactivity from Sellafield but it does not pose a significant risk to health.

Let us consider the situation of a severe accident. I mentioned that we looked at several different scenarios which encompass the kind of accidents that occurred at Sellafield and Fukushima. We believe food and agricultural protective actions would generally be required. The extent of the protective actions and the period during which they would have to be in place would depend on the severity of the accident. For the most severe accidents we considered, staying indoors would be recommended for a period and obviously that has a certain impact. Overall, we believe socioeconomic impacts could be anticipated for a severe accident at one of the nuclear plants proposed to be built in the UK.

Primarily I have discussed discharges to air but let us suppose an accident resulted not in a release to air but a release from the new plants directly into the Irish Sea. Generally speaking, we believe protective actions would not be required. This is because the Irish Sea is so large that the amount of radioactivity released, even though it might be large, would be diluted to such an extent that although we would need to monitor the situation we do not believe that protective actions would be required.

Based on our assessments we believe routine discharges from either existing or proposed nuclear plants pose no radiological risk to people living in Ireland. For the accident scenarios that we have reviewed, in most cases, there would be no observable health effects. There would be social and economic consequences. The overall impact would depend on the severity of the accident and also on the effectiveness of our nuclear plan to respond to the accident.

The RPII will continue to monitor radioactivity levels in the environment to make these assessments. At the beginning I remarked that the plants are not built yet and it is not known what type of plant will be built at each of the proposed sites. Therefore, we are monitoring the situation on an ongoing basis. As the plants begin to be built and as more information is available about what is actually happening, we will be able to refine our assessments to give a more accurate prediction of what exactly will be the case. I confirm that our assessments are conservative to date. In addition to monitoring and assessing, we will continue to maintain a state of readiness to play our part in responding to an accident were it to occur. I thank the Chairman. We would be happy to take any questions.