Mr. Denis Duff:

I thank the joint committee for inviting us. I will briefly go through the presentation and outline some of the issues that may have led to the calls from all of the groups mentioned by Mr. Turvey for the consideration of the use of nuclear power in Ireland. Our sources of energy are increasingly an important issue for Ireland and globally. It is an interesting topic, one which is no less contentious as a result. I will explain why we must act, outline a specific problem and briefly consider how nuclear energy can help. I will finish with three recommendations for the committee to consider.

With regard to the reasons we must act, members are aware of the fifth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change which was issued last month. There is up to a 99% certainty about the contribution of humans to the increase in global CO₂ levels. The limit we want to achieve is 450 parts per million of CO₂, thereby limiting global temperature increases to approximately 2 degrees Celsius. We are the first homo sapiens to be breathing CO₂ at levels of 400 parts per million; the last time there were those levels of CO₂ on Earth homo sapiens had not yet evolved. The implication of rising levels of CO₂ beyond 450 parts per million is that the global average temperature could rise to in excess of 22 degrees Fahrenheit, leading to massive uninhabitable areas such as those around the equator and in the tropics because of high temperatures, as well as increasing desertification. It would also lead to rising sea levels. It may take hundreds or thousands of years, but if all of the ice on the Earth melted, sea levels would increase by over 200 feet, affecting most of the constituencies represented by members, including counties Mayo, Sligo and Wexford, which would be under water. London, the Netherlands and Belgium, as well as the eastern seaboard of the United States, would disappear. I am trying to illustrate how this serious issue has a global impact and it will not go away. There will be an impact in Ireland because we are part of the global community.

There are increasing costs associated with the mitigation of the increase in CO₂ levels.

The Sustainable Energy Authority of Ireland and the ESRI estimate that by 2026 the cost of carbon will be €27 per tonne. The EPA has estimated that we will miss a minor target for 2020 by up to 25 million tonnes even if we do everything that we say we are going to do. As Members can see, the cost could be well in excess by €500 million by 2020.

We are faced with a specific problem. The Moneypoint coal generating station built instead of a nuclear generating station at Carnsore in the mid-1980s will come to its natural end of life, after 40 years, circa 2025 but there is no obvious replacement that we can see. For instance, hydro power in Ireland is effectively fully utilised. There is no more regular hydro power.

Wind energy, while it is useful and will be necessary in the future, is not suitable for base load energy as it is intermittent. For instance, when the wind does not blow no energy can be created. Therefore, wind energy cannot be used to replace Moneypoint.

Wave and tidal power will also be very useful but is intermittent and likely to be extremely expensive. The progress made in developing wave and tidal energy has been very disappointing. In our 2006 energy policy we estimated that we would have 500 MW by 2020 but it looks extremely unlikely that we will reach anything near that amount.

Gas, while it would be suitable as a baseline replacement for Moneypoint, is not as clean as a lot of people think with emissions from a gas-fired station between 40% and 60% as high in carbon as a coal-fired station. Gas would fit the bill technically and be able to supply the energy it would do so sufficiently cleanly to meet our needs post-2020.

One solution that is available at the moment is nuclear energy. This week the UK has proposed that it will build at least one station and will, more than likely, develop the plan by building eight nuclear stations over the next decade or so. Nuclear energy is acknowledged as being a low carbon option and is as clean as wind, solar and hydro energy. Nuclear power is also competitive. That is the reason the UK has opted for it and why stations are being built in the UK, China and India. There are many stations being built. In fact there are more nuclear stations being built, proposed and planned now than there were three years ago. They are also suitable in terms of size and low change.

I shall move on to talk about the reactions that my organisation is specifically interested in and thinks are game changers when it comes to nuclear power for Ireland. The committee will be aware that nuclear submarines are powered by small power plants which have an extraordinarily good record in terms of safety and reliability. People in the United State, China and India are developing power packs to make them suitable for power generation. They will be built in factory with no reactor component larger than 13 ft. in order that it can fit on a railcar or on the back of a track and be easily transported. Power packs will be built in factory, tested in factory and merely assembled on site and thereby reducing the overall site unit construction time, increased project certainty and dramatically reduced project risk and finance. Such a development will have a great impact on the final cost of its electricity. BENE has conducted a study on the matter. We believe that we can easily undercut the cost that was announced this week for the UK's new nuclear programme due to the reactor's small size and the ease of construction. A small reactor of approximately 200 MW is a suitable size for the Irish grid and is about the size of some units already operating here and smaller than some. It is capable of load following which means that it can reduce load at night, which is very important for Ireland, and can also facilitate intermittent energy. For instance, when wind energy rapidly increases the nuclear energy, if so wished, could ramp down.

We expect that the first small reactors will be built in 2019 and that they will become commercially available in 2021 or 2022. The timing is perfect in order for us to consider a replacement for Moneypoint in 2025.

In conclusion, I shall outline three recommended actions that I would like the committee to consider. First, we recommend that Ireland's energy policy includes an objective consideration of nuclear energy. Second, we hope that the committee will recommend an official study into the impact of small modular reactors as a replacement for Moneypoint. Third, we hope that the committee recommends the repeal of section 18(6) of the Electricity Regulation Act 1999 which disallows the consideration or implementation of nuclear power in Ireland.