Mr. John McCarthy:

There are two questions, the first of which is about the downward revision for this year and next. It is primarily on the export side. Unfortunately, the data had disappointed in the opening part of the year. Exports were down by 1.5% in volume terms in the first half of the year. That, in turn, is related to two factors. As there has been weaker than assumed external demand, projections for the United Kingdom, the United States and the eurozone have disappointed, especially in the first quarter, and that obviously has a direct impact on our exports. There is also the worse than assumed patent cliff position. That will have an affect both this year and next.

The process is based on a consolidation figure of €3.1 billion. As outlined in the SPU, the ratio is two to one between expenditure and taxation. What will happen in the next week or so is that we will get figures from our colleagues on the fiscal side for the actual individual consolidation measures, as well as the quantum of consolidation. We will then apply our own assumptions for various multipliers by looking at the individual consolidation instruments to see what they mean for growth. We will then iterate with the fiscal division in order that we are all on the same page in terms of the macro-economic and fiscal outlook. It is an interative process, whereby information on the consolidation will be the key variable. We do not have it on our side at the moment.