Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Tuesday, 8 October 2013

Joint Oireachtas Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform

Macroeconomic Forecasting: Discussion with Department of Finance

6:40 pm

Ms Mary Dalton:

My apologies. PMI is the purchasing managers indices. In the UK in September, this was 60.4. The composite PMI here was driven by the services sector. The green line on the slide represents the euro area. As can be seen, in the last quarter the composite index has moved into positive territory at 52.2 in September.

I would like to briefly mention the world economic outlook which was published this morning by the IMF. Obviously, this did not come out in time for us to include in our forecasts but in terms of where the IMF sees activity in the global economy, growth is quite weak at the moment but, for the advanced economies, it sees growth picking up in the US, the UK and the euro area in 2014. Nevertheless, it is important to point out that economic growth in our key export markets remains fragile. There are short-term risks, which are really tilted to the downside.

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