Mr. John Bryan:

We have a close relationship with them. They are our nearest neighbours and it is a huge help that we speak the same language. Scotland will hold a referendum on whether it wishes to leave the UK. The Scottish tell us they will play hardball but they are not going anywhere. The Scottish are fairly pragmatic and they will vote based on where the pound and euro stands. They are using the referendum to negotiate a better deal on single farm payments and to keep a higher proportion of oil revenues. They have no doubt that they will vote to remain in the UK. People are telling us that they will vote to leave, but when they get closer to the point where they have to make the hard decision, it is more than likely they will want to stay.

I view England as having two economies. The greater London region, which is connected to banking and commerce, wants to remain part of the EU because it cannot afford to leave. The rest of England may be different. In Scotland, the agriculture sector need to stay in because people know whatever support they may get from the EU, they will get none from their own Government. The feeling in the greater London region is that people will vote to stay in but only when the gun is put to their heads. They may continue to speak about leaping but they will not do so at the end of the day. Peter Kendall, the president of the National Farmers Union, is a wealthy grain farmer from east Anglia. Although he is very conservative, he reckons they will stay in when push comes to shove.