Mr. John Bryan:

I will let Professor Renwick answer some of the technical questions and I will answer the general questions. We are definitely going to have a rise in the world population. I was at a conference in Brussels yesterday where representatives from DG Agriculture and Rural Development and the Food and Veterinary Office were presenting. They spoke about 2 billion extra people to be fed, with 400 million more people in China, 100 million in India and 140 million in Nigeria. The UN has concerns about the capacity of these countries to feed these people. They do not have the water or the agricultural land for it, so there is a huge concern about that. There is a medium and long-term opportunity for Ireland to grow an industry that can feed these people.

The UN reports made the point, which goes back to Deputy Deering's point, that the people of India would starve if food was sold at world prices. Farmers get a substantially higher price for food than the world price in India because they cannot produce it if the input costs are higher and if they were to sell at the same price as a factory farm in the US or South America. There is an acceptance that the price of food in India has to be higher, unless they want widespread poverty. In Ireland, we have a small economy and are under huge economic pressure, but we have a massive asset with our agricultural land and our small population density, compared to much of western Europe, and we have the capacity to create jobs here. However, as Deputy Deering pointed out, there is an innate problem with sucklers and that is why there was a suckler premium and a beef premium in the old CAP system.

I want to go back to Deputy Ó Cuív's point about decoupling. Farmers never mentally decoupled. A man from Monaghan explained this to me at the ploughing championships. He joined BTAP and learned to do his arithmetic, and he figured out that those sucklers are eating more than they generate. He is also taking a 35% cut in his single farm payment over the next number of years. He said that without that 35%, he was not going to keep the suckler cow. He was on €500 per hectare, and he is losing €165. That is the difference and he decided that the cow had to go. Of course it will take more, but we must be realistic and in answer to Deputy Deering's question, €30 would not go far. Sometimes it has given people an element of confidence, and something just short of €100 is essential. If the Minister and the Cabinet do not provide, we will reach a tipping point. I have been travelling to meetings for the last 20 years, and I know they are at the tipping point now. People predicted in 2005 that with decoupling, we would lose 300,000 suckler cows, but I knew we would not lose any because every night I was out, everyone was pulling heifers. Nobody is pulling heifers now. They are all bringing the cow and the calf into the mart and they are worth more without the calf. That is a frightening figure.

Deputy Ó Cuív asked a few very good questions. If the market income plus some level of linkage plus the single farm payment leaves a lad with a family income, he will keep the cow. If the three supports do not leave him with an income, the cow is gone. Farmers have a different way of looking at things. During the building boom, every genius told us to sweat our assets and sell, but most of us did not do that. We could have got €30,000 or €40,000 per acre, but we still have the land because we are a little more pragmatic and we take a long-term view. A farmer does not invest for tomorrow. He invests for three years' time or ten years' time. A man in Virginia explained to me the difference between a Cavan man and a Leitrim man. A Leitrim man likes the cow and says "She's a lovely cow". The Cavan man adds up one plus one, so he will hang her twice as quick. The reality is that most farmers invest long term. I do not build a shed and expect to get paid back next year, but that is what we do. That is why we still own most of the land. If we were like the builders and the developers, we would have sold all our land would probably have lost all our money on bank shares. Instead, we own our land and are long-term investors. We are careful. We are prudent.