Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees
Wednesday, 11 September 2013
Joint Oireachtas Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform
Overview of 2014 Pre-Budget Submissions: Discussion
11:15 am
Dr. Seán Healy:
I will try to respond to both sets of questions. I did not get an opportunity the last time to do so.
We did not include the carry-over expenditure for two reasons. We actually have an excess. Our adjustment figure is over €3.1 billion. There was a certain amount in that regard. The main reason we did not include it was that we did not believe several key items would be on target. In our analysis of budget 2013 which was published the day after the budget was announced we made the clear point that all of the literature showed that health care expenditure could not be reduced by more than 3% per annum while expecting the system to survive or remain in place. It was proposed to reduce it by 5%, but that was never going to happen and it is not going to happen. We were not being presented with real numbers. We think the credibility of some of the numbers is very questionable. We consider some of the other numbers we have been given, particularly for growth, to be highly incredible. We have supplied the reasons for holding that opinion on page 4 of our investment briefing which has been furnished to the joint committee. It shows that the real levels of growth which would have to be generated in order to reach the projected levels after taking so much money out of the economy would have to be at Celtic tiger levels. That is not going to happen. There are quite serious issues in that regard.
On the issue of pensions, our view is that the impact of our proposal on people already making savings would be twofold. First, they would make a fairer contribution in terms of tax, and second, the pensions industry would not make as much money as it has been making. It has been the great winner in terms of that particular tax break.
On the question of the €500 million for the promissory note and whether I should go higher on that, our view was that the Government is not likely to go higher than that and that is why we developed this proposal for €7 billion in off balance sheet investment. It is correct that on our budget proposals there is only €50 million on the books for social housing, but there are several hundred million in the investment programme we put beside it. However, that would have to be done on an off balance sheet basis if we are to get that level of investment.
Perhaps Ms Murphy would like to talk about the nutrition tax.
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