Dr. Bernie McCabe:

I wish to answer Senator Healy Eames's questions as well as the question about the survey and the poll. In respect of how we predict and what must be done to predict suicide, we know we are poor predictors of suicide and I have mentioned this several times before. A number of studies show they are all over the place. While I am sure Professor Malone would add by a factor of ten what I will give to members, these studies also extend to actuarial studies. Even the latter, which were not done by psychiatric professionals and are purely statistical, have proven the prediction of suicide to be highly unpredictive, even in the high-risk groups. A paper produced in 1983 by Pokorny states the number predicted as being likely to die by suicide was 35 times greater than the number who would die. In other words, we over-predict and as a result have false positives. I hope that answers Senator Healy Eames's question. We are very poor at it. If one equates this to the number of pregnancies, that is a startling and distressing number.