Michael Noonan (Limerick City, Fine Gael) | Oireachtas source

If we had followed the policies Deputy Boyd Barrett often proposed we would be like Greece before the change of government and our unemployment levels would probably be around 35% to 40%. If we adopted his policies now, we could reverse what is a good trajectory and fall back into that position. What is my basis for projecting modest growth? The IMF has done an evaluation and says emerging economies are growing, the US is growing strongly and Europe is the back marker. It projects world growth of approximately 3.5% for this year and stronger growth next year. The European Commission projects that growth will be restored in Europe in the second half of this year. It will be modest but positive growth and it will be stronger next year.

That is the basis of the projections. On the unemployment side, one forgets so quickly. Matters are relatively normal now but the Deputy should think back to the day he was elected. Then many people believed we would not survive. The great and the good were predicting it was mission impossible for the incoming Government. By pursuing our policies, we have made significant progress. This time last year unemployment stood at 15%. Now, it is 14%, so we are moving in the right direction, downwards.

I would like if it were moving faster. That is why I am drawing the distinction between forecasting and targeting. We have given the forecasts but we hope to do better with our targets. As late as today, we made arrangements with the European Investment Bank to provide some stimulus to the economy. We are tied into deficit controls, spending ceilings, so we cannot have additional investment unless we get it off balance sheet by using the European Investment Bank. It is on board now and is committed to giving us significant funding. The bundle of health centres announced by the Minister for Health will be up and running in August while the next bundle of schools will be run out in the autumn. All these initiatives are very important.